2019.04.04 Meeting

By | April 4, 2019


  • 백악관의 연준압박 수위 고조
  • 저물가 현황
  • 금리인하 확률 증가와 시장버블 조짐
  • 중국경제 재활
  • Lyft IPO (Simple Valuation Analysis)

JPM’s Recession Probability (Jan 3 vs. Apr 2):
SPX – substantially reduced
High Grade Credit – Cut in half
Junk Bonds – Very low
Metals – Reduced but still high
5-year Treasury – Higher (still high) due to lower GDP expectation
Overall comment – FED, ECB, China intervened to reduce probability of a recession.